...And how much data from the series do you need to collect before you adjust/change scheme?
The instance that comes to mind is back in the 2024 first round Playoff series against the Timberwolves where 3 player shot well above their season average from 3 and it ultimately sunk us in that series:
- Julius Randle
- Regular season 3FG = 34.4%
- Playoff series 3FG = 39.3%
- Jaden McDaniels
- Regular season 3FG = 33.0%
- Playoff series 3FG = 37.5%
- Naz Reid
- Regular season 3FG = 37.9%
- Playoff series 3FG = 50.0%
Of these three players above, only one would actually be considered a shooter and that's Naz Reid. Clearly the scheme was to send help off McDaniels to double Ant on the perimeter and force him to make PG decisions and it didn't seem to work as well as hoped, Ant averaged 6.2 ASTs in the series and only committed 6 TOVs in the series. If Ant drove into the paint, the scheme was to pack the paint with the "Center" and Power Forward (since Jax got played off the court, the two to pack the paint ended up being Rui and DFS) and Rui would leave Randle open.
In Game 1 where the Lakers got blown out, Randle went 4/6 from 3, McDaniels went 3/3 from 3, and Naz Reid went 6/9 from 3.
In Game 2, the lone game the Lakers won, Randle went 2/4 from 3, McDaniels went 0/3 from 3, and Naz Reid went 1/3 from 3 and I noticed the Lakers made an effort to run Naz Reid off the 3, but they still more or less let Randle and McDaniels let fly in the hope that Game 1 was an aberration.
In the elimination game the Lakers lost, the Randle/McDaniels/Reid trio went a combined 1/9 from 3, Ant himself went 0/11 and Minnesota shot an abysmal 14.9% from 3, and yet the Lakers still lost.
All the above is to essentially ask this question, do you buy into the idea of leaving poor shooters wide open from 3 in order to take away something else that is potentially more dangerous, in the above case the Lakers didn't want Ant to get into the paint and wanted to force him into make quick decisions upon the blitz? Does a 7 game series not provide enough data to do this because of small sample size variance, AKA, a bad shooter could just get hot from 3 in a series which happened in the above example, Randle shot almost 5% better than his season average?
The other reason I ask is that I see so many people asking, "well why is so and so wide open, that's terrible defense!" and there is a difference between a blown rotation/blown assignment leaving a shooter open or leaving a shooter open by design to either do a hard double team/blitz, pack the paint etc. To use another painful example....there's a reason Russell Westbrook was left wide open from 3, that wasn't bad defense, that was the opposing coach scheming. Now we never got a playoff series with Russ to see if small sample size variance came into play, but I'm just wondering what people's thoughts are regarding this particular scheme since JJ seems to really believe in it and it's such a hot topic given the prevalence of 3 point shooting in today's game.