https://lizpowell.net/all-time-ap-poll/

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Hey all. I look forward to these updates all season!

What movement do you expect to see this season???

Read CJ Moore's full analysis, with keys to the season and players to watch for each team (free link): https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7723836/2026/10/26/mens-college-basketball-top-25-preseason-2026-27/?unlocked_article_code=1.LlE._VZo.uC2lDeICevDp&source=emp_shared_article&smid=re-share-ta

Here is link to select your team:

https://www.jthomanalytics.com/basketball/teams/?conf=All%20Teams

Chart lists all games for each team, ordered from most likely to win at the bottom to least likely at the top. Based on 1,000 season simulations, the # of wins required to achieve a certain seed is represented on the right.

Two examples provided for Texas Tech and Gonzaga. With more difficult overall schedule, projected that TT would need around 24 wins to achieve a 4 seed and 28 for Gonzaga.

Conference tournament is included - with probability of winning that many conference tournament games. Most difficult game for Texas Tech is 5th conference tourney win. In order to have 5 wins they’d have to be seeded 9-16 in the conference tournament and then win 5 games. It could happen but highly unlikely if they are good enough to win 5 games they would be seeded bottom half of conference.

Current projected wins shown (average of 1,000 season simulations). For Texas Tech - 23.4 wins; 28.6 for Gonzaga. In both cases project teams in 3/4 seed range.

Mine is that DePaul will make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2004

Box Score

A coworker and I guessed over 1,000 D1 men’s basketball games last year, generally focused on all Top 25 matchups, any close game matchups according to ESPN, MW conference games, and any games being played by our local teams.

This year, we’d like to guess winners of EVERY single D1 Men’s Basketball matchup. Does anyone know of a platform we could use to help make this possible?

We presently use a Google Sheets to keep track of our guesses, but surely there’s an easier way to do that than how we do it. Any thoughts or suggestions? Thanks!

This is a long read, sorry lol.

The Big East is a unique conference with it's prowess in basketball, but outside of few other Olympic Sports, they aren't really considered a "power" conference. And pundits and fans have theorized what a non-football western power conference might look like. Men's basketball is the most important factor here, but women's basketball, women's volleyball, and baseball are pretty important too. I'm using western liberally here (think West of the Mississippi), but these are the teams I could see making up the conference.

1. Gonzaga. The obvious choice, and a new blood of college of basketball. Their lowest Kenpom score over the last five years was 15. Another sport Gonzaga is good at is women's basketball. Their other sports are kind of up and down.
2. Creighton. Now, I don't think they'd leave the Big East without the same payout in another conference. But if UConn ever leaves for a power conference like the ACC or Big12, I could see some schools in the BE getting nervous. Creighton's lowest Kenpom score of the past five years is 76. They're also good at women's volleyball and women's basketball.
3. Saint Mary's. The loss of Randy Bennett is an understandable concern, and their lowest Kenpom grade reflects that (72 for the 2027 preseason). However, they still stand to be a good basketball program, and can clearly rise to the occasion. SMC is also having a good run in baseball for the past few years.
4. Santa Clara. A recent trendy pick for the at-large and SMC's current foe for WCC dominance. Santa Clara's lowest Kenpom grade was 109 back in 2024. Santa Clara has been good at women's basketball over the past few years, and women's soccer has recent national championships.
5. Grand Canyon. Another trendy pick for the at-large, they bring good basketball to the Mountain West (which is severely lacking it now that many of the good programs left). Their lowest Kenpom score was 108 in 2023, and they also bring good women's basketball and good softball!
6. Saint Louis. Yet another trendy pick for the at-large. Saint Louis has had a bit of a resurgence after a down 2024 and 2025 (199 in Kenpom), but they have great history. Plus, their men's soccer is very good (the best historically).
7. Wichita State. The fourth and final trendy at-large pick (154 their lowest grade in 2024). They had great runs in the 2010s, and are back on the up as a team. Their baseball had great years in the 80s and 90s too. Their women's basketball is a real bummer though.

These next two schools I want you to stay with me on. They might not have had recent great runs in March Madness, but have a lot to offer when it comes to size, media market, and consistency through multiple sports.

1. UC Irvine. Their lowest Kenpom grade is 110 for this preseason. They've never been able to get it done in the BW tourney since 2019, but they've been a very consistent squad in a bad BW, with good results against P5 teams. In addition, their women's basketball has been some of the best among the group mentioned above, and their baseball is consistently one of the best in the country.
2. Utah Valley. Their lowest Kenpom grade is 162 in 2024, but have once again been able to shine through in the old WAC. Their men and women's soccer have been the among the top for the past few years. They would be the "potential" pick, where given the opportunity to grow, I think they would.

At a total of nine, I wanted to get to eleven. The other two I'm kind of on the fence about, and have narrowed down to four options.

1. New Mexico. I know I said non-football, but look at UConn and Villanova. They can figure out where to put their football team if they have an increased payout from the MW. Their lowest Kenpom grade would be 77 for this preseason. Their women's basketball is one of the better ones among the group above. Their baseball team is pretty good in MW play too.
2. UC Santa Barbara. Their men's basketball team would probably be the worst team on this list, whether it be from underperforming or some other reason. However, their baseball has been some of the best in the nation for the past few years, their women's volleyball (excluding the down year this year), has a storied history, and men and women's soccer is among the best in the West Coast. So outside of basketball, they're a great pick.
3. UC San Diego. A newcomer to Division I, they've made their presence known. Their lowest over the past five years is 276 (but that's an outlier of the past five—and it was in 2023). Nearly toppling Michigan in 2025 and giving P5 schools a run for their money shows great strength. Women's basketball has similarly improved, though not to the level of men's. However, every other sport of theirs is nowhere near as good.
4. Northern Iowa. A quietly successful mid-major with better performances in women's basketball than men's. Their lowest Kenpom is 223 in 2023. Their women's volleyball is also pretty good! However, they have a similar problem as UC San Diego, as that the rest of their sports aren't good.

I'm open to criticism! I wrote about this in a different sub about a year ago with different teams, and got varied responses. How big do you think the payout would be for these schools? Did I miss any non-football squads that should replace the ones I mentioned? What do you think it would take for something like this to actually happen.

My preseason ranking is based on a few different factors, the main being an adjusted Elo derived from returning players and their metrics last season.

I also spent some time working on interactive charts that tie together with the rankings. You can view the distribution of the current Elo rankings, see the median, search for a team, see teams in each bucket, etc.