literally 66% of s&p 500 stocks are quietly bleeding out and hitting 52-week lows, yet headline indices look like everything is fine because mega-caps keep pushing ATHs.

equal-weighted vs cap-weighted correlation is hitting historically dangerous levels right now. retail is looking at spy thinking it's a healthy bull run, but under the surface, market breadth is completely shot.

i keep showing this breadth divergence to my friends and they just shrug it off because spy is green. am i crazy, or is this massive divergence between market capitalization and actual participation a huge red flag?

My fellow regards. We need to save Wendy’s before it’s too late. If this company goes bankrupt, we’ll all be out of a job!

With the Strait of Hormuz shut again, US crude inventories at a 45-year low and just 43 days of supply on hand, the market’s inflation complacency looks increasingly exposed.

Investors have nevertheless cut their year-end oil-price assumption to $71/bbl from $86/bbl.

For Hartnett (Bank of America's Chief Investment Strategist), the cleanest hedge against a “surprise” FED hike before the November midterms is long the US dollar.

Everything is fine, Jesus will return to us, and say:

Don't worry, my children, now I can turn water into oil.

And just like that, out of nowhere, we'll have oil again.

Believe it or not, calls.

In 2025, Anthropic made $4b rev, -$46b costs for a net loss of -$42 billion.

That's a -1,100% profit margin.

It's actually shocking how bad that is

They also have publicly committed not to sell ads

So they'll somehow have to make up a -1,100% profit margin with very limited options

Also, competition is rising exponentially from rivals including Meta's Muse, Google's Gemini, Chinese open-weight/open-source models, decreasing their market share

People can get decent AI from much cheaper options

So even though OpenAI/Anthropic are already not profitable, they are being forced to lower their prices further. Like losers.

They are resorting to using dodgy accounting tricks, like Enron did, to artificially fake better profit margins.

Such as reporting profits while excluding certain necessary costs they had to incur to achieve the revenue like stock compensation etc.

To make it seem like they are more profitable than they are, to desperately try to get investors onboard

Their IPO will be a bloodbath

Is this true? It’s huge if it’s indeed proven

FY25 financials:

Valuation: ~$2T

Revenue: $4.59B, up 1,088% YoY from $386M

Operating loss: $8.06B, widening from $2.98B

GAAP net loss: $41.97B, vs $8.31B

Compute + infrastructure expense: $7.33B, up 190% YoY

Compute and infrastructure represented 58% of total operating expenses

Cash + short-term investments: $20.28B at year-end

Two largest customers accounted for 12% of revenue each

Other names to consider:

Memory: MU, SKHY

Cloud / Compute: GOOG, AVGO, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, MSFT

Infra / Capacity: CIFR, CRWV, SPCX, WULF, HUT, AKAM

All positions in the screenshot have already been sold.

I mentioned in my previous posts that PLTR/ZETA might have possible breakout on earnings. Next play is NBIS earnings 8/12

Current option positions:

APPL @220 8/28 - I bought at 308, DRAM @55 8/28 - I bought at 49, NBIS @$220 8/28 - I bought at 184

Buying Power 90% Cash, risking 10% in options

(PLTR Calls)

PLTR $130 Call 9/18: +$23,650

PLTR $130 Call 8/21: +$44,312

PLTR $145 Call 9/18: +$73,761

PLTR $140 Call 9/18: +$81,535

PLTR $130 Call 8/28: +$118,868

PLTR $125 Call 8/21: +$136,500

PLTR $140 Call 8/21: +$309,252

PLTR $130 Call 8/7: +$22,361

Subtotal: $810,239

(DRAM, MRVL, NBIS Calls)

DRAM $55 Call 8/28: +$6,832

DRAM $55 Call 9/18: +$10,600

MRVL $200 Call 9/18: +$73,200

NBIS $200 Call 9/18: +$66,000

Subtotal: $156,632

(ZETA Calls)

ZETA $25 Call 9/18: +$231,900

ZETA $22 Call 8/28: +$20,850

ZETA $22.5 Call 9/18: +$291,270

Subtotal: $544,020

Grand Total: $1,510,891

So let me get this straight.

Suckerberg spends tens of billions panic buying AI chips because he doesn't want to be the guy left behind.

Fast forward a few months and Meta suddenly has so much spare compute that they're talking about renting it out because they built more infrastructure than they currently need.

Wall Street's reaction?

Punish the entire semiconductor and AI sector... while pumping Meta like this was some kind of masterstroke on their part. There was no masterstroke or masterplan. The market is punishing the sector for one man's poor foresight and incompetence.

I expect a rapid correction when people realise this.

But then again, the market normally inverses logic. So, Meta calls?

The AI bubble isn’t bursting. You idiots ARE the demand.

Everyone compares AI to the dot-com bubble while using AI every fucking day.

We ask it stupid questions, write emails and texts, summarize shit we don’t want to read, code, research, study, make spreadsheets, plan trips—the list keeps growing.

And that’s just us degenerates. Enterprises are plugging AI into customer service, coding, cybersecurity, data analysis, sales, marketing, and basically every workflow where humans stare at screens and move information around.
Here’s the part bears underestimate: a shitload of this usage is still free.

Millions of normies are getting accustomed to having something in their pocket that can explain, write, research, and analyze almost anything for $0.
What happens when free tiers shrink and the best AI costs $20-30/month?

You can refuse to pay, sure. But when everyone around you is researching, learning, writing, and working 2-5x faster with AI, you’re putting yourself at an intellectual and productivity disadvantage over $20.

Eventually AI stops feeling like Netflix and starts feeling like internet access. And when companies figure out how to fully monetize the billions of people they spent years getting hooked on free AI?
Money printer go brrrr.

It's not just an AI bubble, it's a systemic collapse worse than 2008. ^{Yes I used the AI sentence structure, beep boop fuck you.}

Dog shit wrapped in cat shit.

If you're too dumb to read, feed these points into your favorite AI tool and ask it about the information's reliability. Then ask it how fucked retail is.

1. Increasing amount of companies are taking on private credit, up from $500B in 2020 to $2+ trillion in 2026, expected to grow past $4 trillion by 2030. For comparison, the 2008 subprime loans were estimated around $2 trillion.
2. This private credit market (unironically called "shadow banking") relies almost entirely on Level 3 assets. This means unregulated, often unreported credit that's being valued using the funds' own internal models ("mark-to-model") rather than real-time market prices ("mark-to-market"). Basically, their analysts decide the price and tell the buyer to trust them.
3. Huge portion of these loans were written in 2021-2022 during low interest rates, and are now becoming mature in 2027-2029. We're talking over half a trillion in leveraged private debt scheduled to mature in 2028 alone.
4. It has been labeled "The Maturity Wall". If the rates stay high, many borrowers won't be able to refinance, leading to defaults or fire sales. And many of these loans are backed by dead software and depreciating GPUs, zero real assets whatsoever. The bag holders will be left with nothing.
5. And Fed just cancelled rate cuts, now estimating rate hikes for the end of the year. Meaning the companies will be even less capable of making the interest payments.
6. The IMF estimates that roughly 40% of private credit borrowers operate with negative free cash flow, up from 25% in 2021.
7. And while the reported default rate of this private credit is currently sitting at just 1.5-2%, the real private credit default rate is estimated at 5-6% and increasing.
8. Why don't the reported and the actual numbers match? Because private credit lenders are offering Payment-in-Kinds (PIKs) to avoid defaulting the loans, allowing the borrowers to skip the interest payment in favor of increasing the debt. They're literally kicking the can on loans that aren't being paid so they don't have to default them and get margin called themselves.
9. Payment-in-Kinds usage more than doubled from 5% to 11% by late 2025. Out of the 5-6% default rate, estimated 50% is driven by PIKs and interest deferrals.
10. However, private credit funds have Payment-in-Kind exposure limits, mandated by the big commercial banks that they loan from. To circumvent these limits and maintain access to bank leverage and not get margin called, synthetic PIKs were invented to hide PIKs from the books.
11. When a borrower fails to pay the interest, they use a secondary delayed-draw term loan (DDTL) to pay the interest. Technically the first loan is getting cash interest payments, at the cost of a new, bigger loan. It's the private credit equivalent of paying off your credit card debt with another credit card. They invented a new instrument to hide the fact that interest payments are being missed and that these loans are growing into dog shit so that they could leverage more.
12. Furthermore, these private loans are increasingly being packaged into Private Credit CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations). The idea is simple; while any one loan might be risky on its own, bundling a bunch of them together reduces the risk. Just like index funds, for example. And similar to Mortgage Backed Securities. What could possibly go wrong?
13. Due to the private nature of these private loans, nobody knows the true health of what's really being packaged into the CLOs. We know synthetic PIKs exist and are being used to some extent, but we don't know the full exposure. There could be defaulting loans of zero-asset software companies marked as AAA due to interest payments being made from DDTLs.
14. Who buys these Private Credit CLOs? Mainly pension funds and insurance companies, sometimes retail directly. They commit capital through third-party fund managers like Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, or through Business Development Companies (BDCs).
15. The SEC is busy ensuring that the big banks aren't secretly leveraged on this. They literally know shit is about to go down, and are only protecting the big money. Retail will hold the bags.
16. Worse yet, most of the underlying credit loans mature in 5-7 years, yet the investors in CLOs are allowed to cash out every quarter. This means the asset managers will have to freeze withdrawals altogether to tackle the illiquidity, meaning that retail won't be able to cash out as the defaults keep happening.
17. And this has already begun, with numerous asset managers already freezing withdrawals. Stone Ridge fulfilled only 11% of withdrawals earlier this year, Blackstone raised affiliate capital to meet the withdrawals, and Blue Owl froze all withdrawals indefinitely.

TL;DR: They're wrapping dog shit in cat shit as we speak, valuating it themselves as AAA packages with the help of PIKs, and selling those CLOs to pension funds and retail. The assets will be frozen due to liquidity mismatch, and it will be 2008 again but this time unwinding over multiple years of slow-burning crisis. The opacity is even worse, the leverage is hidden, and the buyers are retail. Add in a bit of an AI bubble with increasing rate hikes, and we got the dot-com bubble and the 2008 crisis combined into one bomb from 2027 onward.

Edit: And it's not AI you dumb fucks, just because someone can write one page worth of bullet points doesn't mean they're AI. I did get inspired by Tom Bilyeu's video few months ago though, maybe watch that instead of commenting whatever dumb shit you were going to comment.

How the fuck is this possible? I swear on my life that I don't sell put options so this was a misclick while I was trading.

Because I didn't know I sold a put. I didn't close it and now my account got liquidated and I owe 70k USD.

Am I actually fucked? How the fuck did one 350 USD contract turn into 70k USD.

Started with 30k a couple years ago turned on margin and made it to 1.4M. fell to 150k 5-6 times and now we're here. No longer in margin.

As the title said. I’m not worried about the overall AI trade just because Open AI has lower revenue than previously stated expectations. I think Open AI will be the first loser in the AI race.

They have no Moat. Muse is a better chatbot/agent and it’s free! Open AI charges $100 a month for basically the same product.

Claude beats it when it comes to coding and enterprise inclusion. Even Microsoft is pulling away from Open AI and leaning more towards Claude.

Open AI has nothing to integrate with. Meta can interconnect across Facebook and instagram and all of its other apps. Alphabet has Google Maps and Gmail and Google Drive to integrate with as well.

Space X has rockets and a shit ton of money to build the largest “AI factory” in Texas.

Sam Altman is largely unpopular. That doesn’t help.

Open AI is all built on loans.

What happens if Open AI crashes? Do you think they will get bought out?

That’s all I got. Tell me why I’m wrong.

Look, I get it. The man called 2008, made a billion dollars, got a movie made about him with Christian Bale. Legendary stuff. But can we talk about how this dude has been screaming "beginning of the end" for AI stocks for the better part of a year now while Jensen keeps printing money.

Every quarter it's the same thing. Burry files his 13-F showing he's doubling down on puts against NVDA and PLTR. Financial media runs the headline "Big Short investor warns of collapse." We all panic for about 45 minutes. Then earnings drop, guidance gets raised again, and the stock rips another 8%.

I'm not saying AI isn't overheated. Half the companies slapping "AI" into their earnings calls have about as much actual AI as my toaster. But there's a difference between "this will correct eventually" and being early for so long that you've basically just been wrong.

The guy was massively short on Tesla years ago too. How'd that work out? Sometimes being the smartest person in the room just means you're too early for the room to care.

Meanwhile Wendy's pumped 25% in June because someone posted "save Wendy's" and you degenerates actually did it. So maybe technical analysis was never real to begin with.

What's your actual thesis here though? Do you think Burry finally times this right, or is he just gonna keep rolling those puts into the next expiration until heat death of the universe?

Seems to me that retail like Victoria’s Secret here and big food chains (like Cheesecake Factory) are slipping under the radar.

Earnings for Victoria’s Secret coming up 9/3

Portfolio update: I'm 99% in cash waiting for the next play. I sold my NBIS position. Those who followed my last post about NBIS, you're welcome 😄

I have followers settings enabled now.

NEXT PLAY

MRVL PUTS $200 9/25

I see a lot of red in the image; I don't know if it's a coincidence.

Im looking for some advice, I had a great run in 2025, I was up 1300% at some point, I slowly grinded £60K to £1M in 9 months, then I made some really stupid things, which led to more desperate moves (all in options), and i lost it all between October and December.

This year has not been kind to me, im currently down 25%, I actually had an insane start to the year, I think i was up almost 200% ytd in February, but then the Iran war started, I never got back in during April and May, so my account never recovered, by the time I got back I was June and well.. we all know how the last 3months have been.

Now the good news is I still have £100K left but psychologically I cant get over, I keep getting adverts about UK gilts at 5%, £50K a year is more then the average wage of the UK, I am in my 30s, I could've literally just retired but I threw it away like a retard

How do I get over this? I thought i did it once ill make it back again but this market has slapped me in the face more times then I can count

Has anyone else been through this? How did you get over it?

I really need help

Edit: to the people calling me a gambler. Thats the part that sucks the most. I know I will never be able to do it again, the same way, I dont want to give away what I did because it was pure gambling full porting shitcos from May 2025 until September 2025, id just full port shitcos ,double my man then do.it again, basically did it like 3 times, I made over half a million just from $NBIS alone.

But here is the tragic part, I will never do that shit again, I am so scared of losing money I literally take profits after being up a few %, i never let it ride like that. So assuming I dont lose everything, its probably going to take me 5 years to replicate that, and not to mention, this market has sucked ass outside of April and May since October

Is this the top?

TSLA going +5% premarket after a flying cars demo is 100% proof the market is more regarded than you.

And you’re sitting there with your Google spreadsheet, a DCF model, and your “but the P/E is 70” take, getting violently clapped by a literal hover-sofa.

The key to making gains in this casino is to stop pretending everyone else knows shit. The guy on the other side of your trade is not a glowing, omniscient hedge fund god running a quantum AGI LLM you don’t have access to.

Next time you see flying cars, do not open a 14-tab market analysis, and do not summon your inner Warren Buffett. Think like your toddler would. Your toddler would buy calls.

Hope this makes you feel better.

OK so the most profitable companies in the world decided to GO ALL IN AI with humongous capex. They did it all at once apart from Apple who is not in the game. Google, Meta, Amazon , Oracle, Microsoft. All of them. The CEOs of these companies produced the most amount of wealth and propped up global gdp. Now they all agree on a thing.

Google yesterday blew up earnings from their cloud and said they will *increase* their humongous capex even more while reporting negative cash flow for the first time in their history.

A rational person would ask: are these amazing businessmen suddently all very wrong about the same thing at the same time OR

I am reading too much paid subs from burry and following the wrong people on twitter that have never produced anything?

Which is it? Are you smarter than a mag 7 CEO? Maybe ... hmm...

officially DD as to why we’re at the top (from a bear who didn’t buy the puts)

i head a woman talking about stocks today and saying “they just keep going up! i made a lot of money on those AI ones”

and if you remember anything from the Big Short (financial scripture) when a woman starts becoming financially involved, there’s a bubble

it’s officially folks. it’s a bubble. and believe it or not?

calls