Apologies u/Fire_Jason_Beck but that’s an all-time defensive performance that was wasted because we couldn’t field a MEDIOCRE offense. If we don’t have a 2016-esque performance against Rutgers then Beck needs to be fired on the tarmac like he’s Lane Kiffin.

Legitimate question. Does Underwood or Carr start this Saturday and why?

I personally expect Carr to start but think Underwood should start. However, I don't think it matters much because we will underperform either way and it will be because of a heroic defensive performance that we win at all.

Whittingham recognizes that Utah had enough talent and institutional continuity for Morgan Scalley to succeed without him.
Yet at Michigan, his public messaging has emphasized execution problems, the need for roster changes, and confidence in bringing his established offensive system into the program.
Why isn't he applying the same appreciation for inherited talent at Michigan?

Infographic

I've been continuing my analysis of Michigan's offense under Jason Beck, looking for measurable patterns that might explain why we struggle so much to sustain momentum offensively.

One thing that's been frustrating to watch is how often Michigan makes a productive play, only for the offense to seemingly go nowhere immediately afterward.

So I wanted to see how Michigan compares to the rest of college football when it comes to stringing together substantial gains.

For this analysis, I looked specifically at conference games only for every team. That removes nonconference opponents from the comparison and gives us a more consistent look at how offenses perform against teams within their own conferences.

The question is simple:

When an offense gains 10 or more yards on a play, how often does its very next offensive play also gain at least 10 yards?

Here's what I found:

Michigan: - 2 successful sequences in 30 opportunities - 6.7% success rate - 117th out of 120 FBS teams analyzed

FBS conference-game average: - 18.3% success rate

Michigan is producing consecutive 10+ yard gains at roughly one-third the rate of the average FBS offense in our dataset.

Breaking it down by Michigan's Big Ten opponents:

• Iowa: 0 of 9 (0%)
• Minnesota: 0 of 7 (0%)
• Penn State: 1 of 8 (12.5%)
• Indiana: 1 of 6 (16.7%)

That's two successful sequences across four Big Ten games.

I also wanted to see whether this was simply a product of using a relatively demanding 10-yard threshold.

So I ran the same analysis using consecutive gains of 7 or more yards.

Michigan with a 7+ yard threshold: - Michigan: 20.7% - FBS average: 28.4% - Michigan ranking: 105th out of 120

Even when we lower the threshold, Michigan remains near the bottom of the country.

Now, I want to make an important distinction here.

An offense doesn't need consecutive 10-yard plays to be successful. A 15-yard completion followed by a 5-yard run can be perfectly good offense. This isn't intended to measure overall offensive efficiency or first-down conversion rate.

What it does measure is how frequently an offense follows one substantial gain with another.

And Michigan has been particularly poor at doing that compared with other programs.

I've been critical of Beck's tendency to seemingly move away from what's working rather than building on successful plays. This statistic doesn't prove that's what's happening. There's a difference between a questionable play call and a good play that wasn't executed properly.

But when you combine this with some of the other numbers I've examined—Michigan's struggles with favorable second-down situations, third-and-short conversions, and sustaining successful passing plays—it starts to paint a concerning picture.

My biggest criticism isn't that Michigan never produces good offensive plays.

It's that Michigan seems incapable of consistently building on them.

At what point do we start questioning whether the offensive philosophy itself is contributing to that?

Data Source & Methodology

All statistics were calculated using ESPN college football game-level play-by-play data from the 2026 season through October 24.

I downloaded the game records and used Python to analyze consecutive offensive plays across the FBS programs represented in the dataset.

For this specific analysis:

• Only games officially identified as conference matchups were included.
• The first offensive play had to gain at least 10 yards.
• The immediately following eligible offensive play had to gain at least 10 yards to count as a success.
• Both plays had to occur during the same offensive possession.
• Runs and passes were included.
• Special teams plays, timeouts, and administrative events were excluded.
• Each team's success percentage was calculated independently.
• The FBS average represents the equally weighted average of the teams in the comparison.

Limitations: The analysis includes 120 teams with qualifying conference-game sequences, not every FBS program. Teams have played different numbers of conference games, and the results aren't adjusted for opponent strength or game situation. Michigan also has only 30 qualifying opportunities, so individual plays can significantly affect its percentage and ranking.

This measures consecutive substantial gains, not overall offensive efficiency, and shouldn't be interpreted as direct proof of poor play-calling.

Source: ESPN College Football play-by-play data, independently compiled and analyzed using Python.

I was watching a video by some guys I like who break down college football, who were examining who they might want as a new OC and discussing whether or not to find an OC/QB package. It made me wonder... What if a proven OC is hired in a month and he wants Bryce Underwood under center, convinced he can make him live up to his potential?

We are a month away from the end of the season. Beck isn't going anywhere for the next month. In a month we could already have an incoming new Athletic Director named. Anything is possible at that point. Whittingham could just call it a career. He could decide to stick with Beck, then be told by new AD that it's time for a new OC... or to retire. Decisions will need to be made quickly, as the portal will open just over a month later.

If a new coach, whether it's a new HC or OC sat down with Bryce and decided he can be fixed, would the fans embrace him or just say "here we go again?" Bryce probably could use a fresh start, but his teammates seem to like him and it would be good to see him finally put it together, here. Worst case scenario: Beck is OC next season, still calling pass plays to an offensive lineman on 3rd & 1 at the goal line while Bryce Underwood is getting serious Heisman talk at LSU.

From an Mgoblog post:

Speaking in an interview with Tina Nbuyen of WXYZ Detroit, Whittingham said he expects the Wolverines roster to have 50% new players in 2027.

"I wouldn't say it's a complete rebuild because we've got some talented players in the program, but you're always looking to upgrade rosters and recruit," said Whittingham. "Really, college football is 80% recruiting. If you're having success or failure, you can trace it all back to recruiting decisions, either good or bad.

Fire this guy asap. It's well on its way to a dumpster fire.

Hi all,

Despite being a shlog to watch on offense, I’ll be going to the game in Oregon. Grew up a Wolverines fan from Windsor but life since had me move to Vancouver, BC, and I didn’t want to miss an opportunity to see them on the west coast.

Are any other Michigan fans making the trip? I’ve always tailgated at Pioneer and would love to tailgate with other Wolverines pregame. If anyone has plans or would like to join in on making some, please let me know.

Fire Beck. Go Blue!

To be clear, I don't mean the guy in the left image, but the camera operator and the big screen operator. Does anyone know if they're still employed?

We salute you two. You're doing the Lord's work.

Thank you to the Mods for approving this post!

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Infographic Breakdown

I've been continuing to dig into Michigan's offensive play-calling this season, trying to put some actual numbers behind the frustrations we've been watching every Saturday.

One thing that has stood out to me is how often Michigan seems to struggle in situations where the offense only needs a yard or two to keep a drive alive.

So I wanted to find out whether that perception was actually supported by the numbers.

I analyzed play-by-play data from 122 FBS teams through October 24, focusing specifically on 3rd-and-short situations (3rd-and-1, 3rd-and-2, and 3rd-and-3).

Here's what I found:

• Michigan conversion rate: 54.8%
• FBS average conversion rate: 63.4%
• Michigan failure rate: 45.2%
• FBS average failure rate: 36.6%
• Michigan national ranking: 96th of 122 teams analyzed

Michigan has converted just 17 of its 31 third-and-short opportunities this season.

That means Michigan fails to pick up a first down nearly half the time when it needs three yards or fewer.

Here's where things get interesting: What is Michigan actually calling in those situations?

Of Michigan's 31 third-and-short plays:

• 22 were runs (71.0%)
• 9 were passes (29.0%)

And the results:

• Runs: 14 of 22 converted (63.6%)
• Passes: 3 of 9 converted (33.3%)

The difference is pretty significant, although we're dealing with a relatively small sample of pass attempts.

Breaking it down by distance:

• 3rd-and-1: 6 of 9 converted (66.7%)
• 3rd-and-2: 3 of 8 converted (37.5%)
• 3rd-and-3: 8 of 14 converted (57.1%)

That 3rd-and-2 number is particularly frustrating. Michigan has converted fewer than four out of every ten opportunities when it needs just two yards.

Now, I realize that third-down conversion rates don't fall entirely on the offensive coordinator. Blocking, execution, defensive alignment, quarterback decisions, and personnel all play a role.

But I also think play-calling deserves scrutiny when an offense consistently struggles in situations where it should have a reasonable chance of success.

What concerns me about Jason Beck isn't necessarily any individual play call. It's the broader pattern we've been seeing across several different measurements.

We've already looked at Michigan's struggles sustaining productive plays, capitalizing on favorable second downs, and following successful passing plays with additional production.

Now we're seeing that Michigan also ranks in the bottom quarter of our FBS sample in third-and-short conversion rate.

At some point, I think it's fair to ask whether this offense is putting its players in the best situations to succeed.

Is this primarily an execution problem, or are Beck's play-calling tendencies making an already difficult situation worse?

Data Source & Methodology

All statistics were calculated using ESPN college football play-by-play data from the 2026 season through October 24.

I compiled individual game records and used Python to analyze third-down situations across 122 FBS offenses with usable play-by-play data.

For this analysis:

• Third-and-short includes situations requiring 1, 2, or 3 yards on third down.
• A successful conversion requires gaining a first down or scoring a touchdown on the third-down play.
• An unsuccessful conversion includes rushing plays that fall short, incomplete passes, sacks, and completed passes that don't reach the line to gain.
• Converting on fourth down does not retroactively make the third-down attempt successful.
• Intentional spikes, timeouts, and penalty-only no-plays were excluded.
• Each team's conversion rate was calculated independently. The FBS average is the equally weighted average of the teams analyzed.

Limitations: The dataset includes 122 FBS programs rather than the entire subdivision. These are descriptive statistics and aren't adjusted for opponent strength, personnel, or game situation beyond down and distance. Michigan's sample includes only 31 attempts, so a handful of plays can noticeably affect its percentage and ranking.

These statistics don't prove that Beck's play-calling is the cause of the struggles. They do, however, provide a measurable basis for examining whether Michigan's offensive approach is producing acceptable results.

Source: ESPN College Football game-level play-by-play data, independently compiled and analyzed using Python.

I didn’t see this posted here, but I thought it was worth sharing.

I don’t think I have ever seen a team more capable of playing up or down to their competition each week. The penalties and the offense have been absolutely disappointing- However, a handful of corrections or mistakes would be the difference in an undefeated team and a 1 win team. Currently Michigan is somewhere in the middle, but eventually I think the dam has to break. This team will either be galvanized in their resolve to fight through to the end…. Or break apart.

Original via: https://www.extrapointsmb.com/p/what-lessons-can-we-draw-from-player-payrolls-and-a-season-of-parity

Go Blue!

During the game, I said something along the lines of "what was that?!" in the moment this play finished, which has not been all that uncommon this year. But Jake and Devin tipped me off today on The Blue Print, and I'm now realizing it's even worse than I thought.

We ran a fake jet sweep with the only receiver on the field in the direction of a lanky QB listed under 200 lbs.

The defense has no need to even put a half second of emphasis on the action. The starting QB is not going to be risked as a main blocker. There's zero other receivers in the game, so that leaves a guaranteed run. The safeties can immediately play up and join what a already 7 in the box on defense.

For real, what were we trying to do here? Does a single scenario where this ever works actually exist?

Make it make sense!

I call it the Bonk Back.

So what you do is you get a receiver 1 on 1. You throw it to the defender. It bounces off the defender’s head and our wide receiver catches it. It’s unbeatable!

Devon Dampier is still killing it at Utah and Beck looks mediocre at best.

I think the most widely accepted train of thought is that, we're stuck with a zombified Kyle Whittingham as our head coach through the 2027 season at minimum. Utterly befuddled and despondent on the sidelines and in his press conferences.

And while I do think that probably does seem like the most likely and unfortunate fate that awaits Michigan Football for the next 14+ months; I can also see a very realistic scenario unfold that makes the situation so untenable for the golden goose athletic program, that some assembly of shot callers are forced to intervene and put a bullet in this monstrosity before next season begins:

• Whittingham continues this tone-deaf coach speak charade during the week while the offense shits down it's leg for the balance of the season
• Boos and heckles loudly rain down at the Big House when Michigan's offense is on the field, forcing broadcast booths to address the audible disdain from 110K+ fed up fans for the balance of home games this season
• Jason Beck is still employed and calling plays when Michigan goes down to Columbus and loses a competitive game, but offensively gets flayed alive by Ohio State's defense
• The overwhelming majority of players with plausible transfer or NFL draft prospects elect to sit out some meaningless Christmas Eve bowl game
• The roster absolutely craters the day the transfer portal opens, comprised mostly of players thought to be relied upon as key contributors on the 2027 roster

Like... what the fuck would Michigan do if something approximating this dooms day, and yet somewhat realistic scenario plays out?

Would anyone feel confident shuffling a detached and apathetic Kyle Whittingham into the transfer portal to rebuild the roster he and his staff just desecrated, making the pitch for Michigan against the likes of Cignetti, Mario Christobal or Lane Kiffin?

Do we want him hiring a new offensive coordinator after this year's spectacular - and very public - gong show with Jason Beck?

Are boosters going to continue donating millions of dollars to a haphazard, defunct operation led by a coach too checked out to navigate a post-game press conference, let alone lead a blue blood college football program?

If it becomes too glaringly obvious this disaster gets exponentially worse the longer Whittingham stays employed, the people that foot the bill should feel obligated to start making an unavoidable calculus: the upfront cost of a 4-year buyout vs. the opportunity cost of reducing your cash cow football program to rubble for another season at minimum.

Either way you slice it, this season is a train wreck. In the absence of a seemingly impossible epic program rally to end the sason - with players and coaches reunited in their collective commitment to the program; The next best option is to get rid of KW as soon as possible. If something approximating a brutal scenario such as this one plays out, do you think it forces decision makers to pursue extreme measures, or are we destined for ruin for the foreseeable future?

Row 1 behind the MI bench. What signs should I bring?

#FreeZachMarshall

An image of a Rhino 🦏with a ❌

Ideas?

Just seeing how happy him and his teammates were on that final drive was so heart warming. I really needed that! I will always root McCarthy no matter what unless he's playing my Lions!

That’s why it’s so important we move away from Beck now and Whittingham wakes up and realizes this isn’t low stakes Utah.

We just saw against Indiana what we will see in Columbus if everything stays the same. I think Jay Hill and that defense will be healthy and ready to hold that offense down. But if Beck is still calling plays, we will squander all opportunities, settle for field goals and ultimately fall short despite a valiant effort by the kids.

A simple offense we master between now and then could be all we need. We must demote Beck from play calling and ideally fire him to win back the locker room he doesn’t realize he’s lost.

Fans, media, staff, boosters, donors please continue to ask hard questions and challenge Whittingham to wake up. Beating Ohio St is the only goal still on the table.

Coach Kyle, please understand…this is Michigan. Losing 3+ games isn’t acceptable. Losing to Ohio State isn’t acceptable. We can line up against anyone on any day and find a way to win. We expect to.

Do what needs to be done to give us the best chance in Columbus and to prove you get what this means to coach here.